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Geno cider

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    Advanced Merching - Linked Items

    in Blogs

    Posted

    Introduction: Linked items is a term I used to describe items that have their prices linked in some fundamental way. In that sense, the rise/fall in price of one item will eventually result in changes in price of the linked item(s). By carefully watching the prices of two linked items, you can make rapid, short term merches (<1 week) to make lots of gp.

     

    Basic example 1: The items air orb, battlestaff, and air battlestaff  are forever inversely linked in price. The air battlestaff price is fixed by the alch value of 9300 gp. If the price of air orbs goes up, the price of battlestaff will deter people training crafting using this method. Thus, the supply of battlestaff will outweigh the demand , and price will drop to the equilibrium point. Vice versa, is the same. 

     

    Basic example 2: The items zulrah scales and antivenom are directly linked in price. If the price of zulrah scales increases, the price of antivenom should increase, as zulrah scales are used to make antivenoms. 

     

    Advanced example 1: The items of the air battlestaff are also (in an abstract, long term way) linked to the cost of training crafting. If for whatever reason, jagex gives everyone free 200m crafting exp, the price of both air orbs and battlestaff will drop. This is because players will have no reason to make air battlestaves unless it's for profit, and for there to be profit, the prices of orbs and battlestaff combined must be less than 9300. For a more realistic scenario, see how the introduction of wyrm/drake bones crashed the price of dragon bones.

     

    Advanced example 2: The items of zulrah scale/zulrah uniques are directly linked to the price of high end magic gear (mages book, eternal boots, etc). 

    https://gyazo.com/ff925192cebb41a7285f54fac4e1e3b2

    https://gyazo.com/ff925192cebb41a7285f54fac4e1e3b2

    Those are the two graphs of zulrah scale and eternal boots, just to show you I'm not spewing shit out of my ass. 

    Why? The profit of zulrah increases as the price of scales goes up (doing zulrah is net positive in scales) and some other reasons out of this topic's scope. Magic items make up the more expensive gearing options for zulrah. 

     

    Advanced example 5 (I actually did this): Yesterday the price of antivenom spiked up to 8k from 4k, likely due to zulrah-related updates causing market instability. This graph shows a small blip where the price spiked (graph not 100% accurate on real trading price).https://gyazo.com/d1aa8328a6dd73056ad84550ea3590e9

    From this, I hypothesized that antivenoms, in general, were going to spike in price. I noticed that antivenom+, was still trading at its normal price even though its weaker version was spiking at 8k. This graph shows how the antivenom+ spike was ~12 hours delayed after the spike of antivenom. https://gyazo.com/1990e761cec0b0382686ff48ac7516e4

    I bought ~10k antivenom+ yesterday, using as many accounts as I could, and made ~1k profit on each of them, for a total of 10m in 15 minutes of runescaping.

     

    Thank you for reading, I hope to provide more insight in future posts on how to successfully make money off the grand exchange.

     

     

     

    Genocider's Merching Logs

    in Old School RuneScape Discussion

    Posted

    17 hours ago, ragetoggle said:

    Waterbirth collections are really unlikely, unless someone tasked bots to do it. Bots being tasked to do something like that is doubtful unless it really shoots up in price due to the tasks required in order to get over to Waterbirth island. This flip will be seriously long term as well as in order for the price to rise, the supply of the remenants of what people have gotten from NMZ will need to go, and I think it's really unlikely that they'll be gone any time soon.

    Yeah I think the supply from NMZ is really high, for the market to equilibrate it will take long unless there is speculation

    Genocider's Merching Logs

    in Old School RuneScape Discussion

    Posted

    Kebo's lowlands merch

    Snape grass:

    Intro: Recent Kebo's lowlands update introduced snape grass seeds and removed snape grass from NMZ. NMZ points were valued at ~0.4 gp/point when buying bulk so snape grass was around 70-80 gp.   

     

    Why do I think it's a good merch?

    TL:DR - the amount of exp it gives over planting watermelons is pretty negligible, thus for people to plant it they need monetary incentives. Also, people don't even plant watermelons for exp because it's tedious as fuck. I estimated the amount of incentive needed based on herb farming profits

    Snape grass predicted to settle around 1k value

     

    Limitations:

    • people who have alot of money and only want farming exp would still be willing to plant snape grass at a huge loss. 
    • if the price goes too high people might collect them on waterbirth island

    Snape grass merching.xlsx

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